The Last Soccer Game

A year ago, if you told me I won't enjoy playing soccer soon, I would laugh. Today, I had my last game. No one forced me to stop. It's a decision all by myself. And it's a rational decision.

I am not a professional player. I am not even good. But I love soccer. Still do. I started playing at 6 and stopped at 37. Until 8 months ago, for the previous 15 years, I played almost once every week.

Initially, I thought I had tore a ligament on my left knee. My teammate had recovered from a cruciate ligament injury not longer ago. It took him about a year to be able to play again. That's the worst case scenario, I thought. Then, one of my best friends, who happened to be my orthopedist as well, said there's no ligament damage. I rested for a couple weeks and tried running again. Still painful. I went for an MRI. It showed some wear in my knee cartilage but it's nothing uncommon for my age. I decided I should lose some weight to reduce the workload of my knees so that the pain would go away. I lost 10 pounds in the first month and another 10 pounds in the next two months. I would play a game and had some pain over the next few days. I would rest for 2-3 weeks until I tried running again. The pain would come back within a couple minutes of running. The pain itself, in fact, has not been that bad. If I could overcome my instinct and not worry about the pain getting worse, I would keep playing.

After a few months, my doctor declared that it's the kneecap cartilage damage. The official name is chondromalacia patellae, so I found on my beloved Wikipedia. Cartilage cannot regenerate. It's a fact I learned long ago but had forgotten. The future is grim and the options are limited. Periodical injections could act as lubricant and alleviate pains. I tried once. Nothing has changed. Surgery is no longer popular for its ineffectiveness. I could continue to play despite the slight pain but I felt the increasing workload on my right leg and the deterioration of my playing performance. The ache in my heart knowing I would be a much inferior player outweighs the pain endured physically. I could stop playing and preserve my knees for the second half of my life, hopefully anyway.

We had a team photo today. It's a tradition we have a team photo whenever new jerseys are distributed each year. A couple weeks ago, I declined the opportunity to order the new jersey. It was a rational decision too. Why spending another HK$350 if you wouldn't wear it often? In this team photo, I did not wear the new team jersey. Thinking about this would be my last team photo made me cry.

I disdained myself sometimes when I was playing soccer. Those were the occasions I had no control over my temper and often did something I regret, like yelling at your teammates. On the bright side, now I have a smaller opportunity to lose my mind. The only sport I can do now is swimming. Breaststroke was the only style I was capable of but then I found that straightening my knee hard would hurt. So I learned freestyle. I am still not good at it but I have the remainder of my lifetime to improve it. Swimming has never been my favorite sport. The vicissitudes of life is like a joke. This time, the joke is on me.

Microsoft unveils its Surface tablet

This is a scientific calculator which my then colleagues and I designed in 2005. Cool, isn't it?

Jack Daniel's

I sent a letter and received the booklet weeks later.

In the letter, I wrote:

Dear Jack Daniel,

Thank you for making my life less unbearable.

Three Basic Rules

Q: What should a young person look for in a career?

A: I have three basic rules. Meeting all three is nearly impossible, but you should try anyway:

• Don't sell anything you wouldn't buy yourself.
• Don't work for anyone you don't respect and admire.
• Work only with people you enjoy.

I have been incredibly fortunate in my life: With Warren I had all three.

(Charlie Munger)

與其以此為守則，不如現實一點，視之為目標。四十嵗前達到，可以嗎？

The Law of Comparative Advantage

(S: George Shultz; M: Charlie Munger)


S: Charlie, the way I figure it is if we stop trading with China, the other advanced nations will do it anyway, and we wouldn't stop the ascent of China compared to us, and we'd lose the Ricardo-diagnosed advantages of Trade.


M: Well, George, you've just invented a new form of the tragedy of the commons. You're locked in this system, and you can't fix it. You're going to go to a tragic hell in a handbasket, if going to hell involves being once the great leader of the world and finally going to the shallows in terms of leadership.


S: Charlie, I do not want to think about this.


After reading the above conversation in "Poor Charlie's Almanac", my contemplation on free trade and the Law of Comparative Advantage should end.

Imperialism

幾年前拜訪一個南非客戶，父子在開普敦經營一間四十多人的工廠，生産卡式收音機（仍然生産卡式收音機是一奇，在南非生産則更奇！），也從中國進口代理其他電子產品。祖籍英國，幾代前移居到來。


Cape Town是一個很美麗的城市，氣候宜人，在海邊的餐廳坐著喝著，感覺像地中海的一個歐洲城市，一點也感覺不到非洲。可是客戶卻告誡晚上切忌亂走，用膳須坐計程車點到點直達海邊，可見治安並不太好。據説約翰内斯堡的治安更糟。“南非的HIV帶菌者，佔總人口的百分之十”，在接機後的途中，他如是說。我想，繼鑽石和黃金，HIV應是南非的第三大象徵。


當時有點困惑，但不便請教他：爲何會有英國人移居南非？今天讀到羅素《Freedom Versus Organization》Imperialism的一節，終於得到部分答案：


"Though it involved some genuine idealism, in daily life imperialism was usually a more mundane affair, with straightforward economic motives. These were somewhat different in those who emigrated and in those who merely invested money. Various reasons caused the upper and professional classes to favour extensions of the Empire. Young men of no great ability, brought up in habits of social superiority, and finding society at home becoming democratic, were glad of the chance of earning a living and exercising command in regions inhabited by 'inferior' races. Overcrowding, industrialism, and legality made England seem dull to adventurous dispositions, and hateful to those who loved solitude and beautiful surroundings. A considerable number of men went to the colonies only to escape from the ugliness and cramped conditions of modern English life, and found themselves unintentional empire-builders..."

The Problem of China

羅素於1920-21年旅居中國一年，回英後寫了“The Problem of China”。


"The Chinese have discovered, and have practiced for many centuries, a way of life which, if it could be adopted by all the world, would make all the world happy. We Europeans have not. Our way of life demands strife, exploitation, restless change, discontent and destruction. Efficiency directed to destruction can only end in annihilation, and it is to this consummation that our civilization is tending, if it cannot learn some of that wisdom for which it despises the East."
羅素對中國文化的評價高得離奇，沒讀過的不易相信。


"Western Europe and America have a practically homogeneous mental life, which I should trace to three sources: 1) Greek culture; 2) Jewish religion and ethics; 3) modern industrialism, which itself is an outcome of modern science. We may take Plato, the Old Testament and Galileo as representing these three elements, which have remained singularly separable down to the present day. From the Greeks we derive literature and the arts, philosophy and pure mathematics; also the more urbane portions of our social outlook. From the Jews we derive fanatical belief, which its friends call "faith"; moral fervour, with the conception of sin; religious intolerance, and some part of or nationalism. From science, as applied in industrialism, we derive power and the sense of power, the belief that we are as gods, and may justly be the arbiters of life and death for unscientific races. We derive also the empirical method, by which almost all real knowledge has been acquired."


"Comparing the civilization of China with that of Europe, one finds in China most of what was to be found in Greece, but nothing of the other two elements of our civilization, namely Judaism and science. China is practically destitute of religion, not only in the upper classes, but throughout the population. There is a very definite ethical code, but it is not fierce or persecuting, and does not contain the notion of sin."


"The typical Westerner wishes to be the cause of as many changes as possible in his environment; the typical Chinaman wishes to enjoy as much and as delicately as possible. This difference is at the bottom of most of the contrast between China and the English-speaking world."
那是民國時期的中國，如今中西的差別已不多。


"Shortly before I left China, an eminent Chinese writer pressed me to say what I considered the chief defects of the Chinese. With some reluctance, I mentioned three: avarice, cowardice, and callousness. Strange to say, my interlocutor, instead of getting angry, admitted the justice of my criticism, and proceeded to discuss possible remedies."
誰說老外不理解中國國情？

兔年願望

閲讀的速度太慢，喝酒的速度太快，今年的願望是加快前者減慢後者，達至我的Pareto Optimality。

閲讀

少時沒有閲讀的習慣，畢業前所讀過的課外書恐怕只有金庸及古龍。離開校園找工作的那一年，才醒覺自己的諸多不足，然後讀了《李天命的思考藝術》，自此閲讀便與吃喝拉撒睡同級。


知識的探求是"moral obligation"，直至目前爲止，閲讀仍是唯一最有效途徑。後悔少時沒學好中英文，所以絕不容許女兒重蹈覆轍。


智商是先天，可改變的不多；小朋友天生好奇，不要窒礙便行；語文能力將會是教育的唯一重點。好奇心加高速閲讀，learning machine是也！

多元

“Diversity is essential to happiness, and in Utopia there is hardly any.” 烏托邦或共產主義的失敗，無需多講；“Diversity is essential to happiness”這一句，卻引起一些聯想。


原來渴望多元化是人類的本能：你已經有個很好的女朋友，還是想要第二個、第三個（如果有一個老婆，你想要的卻不是第二個老婆，而是一個女朋友，不過同樣是diversify）；你明明想生女，得女後卻想追個“仔”；到泰國渡假平靚正，你偏要試馬來西亞菲律賓；有一輛Benz，又想買Audi；有份高薪厚職，卻要冒險創業；好端端的做廠，卻去搞房地產...


根據邊際效用遞減定律，多元化很可能會帶來更高的Utility。但這只是“很可能”，並不是絕對。多一個女朋友，管理難度提高，所得的快樂未必抵得過所花費的心力；多一項業務，可能因爲分心而使整體回報下降。


有些人生而專一，不愛多樣化，如畢菲特。很可能是遺傳基因出錯，這些人卻能成就大事。有些天才，愛多樣化，也有巨大成就，如羅素，一定是基因出錯。凡人如我，想有點小成——美滿婚姻、幸福家庭加一番事業，每天要奮力抵擋Diversification的誘惑，在Diversity與Focus之間找平衡，真的會有點累。

實業

早上看到這則新聞，口中的鐵觀音噴了一半出來——《港燈擬易名電能實業》。捨一個百年老店的珍貴品牌，取一個面目模糊的三流公司名，到底是怎麽成事的呢？誰的建議？何人拍板？誰人附和？如果是普普通通的一家小公司，一個壞品味的老闆加兩個擦鞋仔夥計就容易理解...

按公告内的邏輯，GE應該正名為Assets Holdings Limited，簡稱ASSHOL，中文名就叫“實業”，正！

告白

《告白》是一齣三級電影，太沒道理。在我兒女十三四嵗的時候，就給他看。讓他知道人性的陰暗面，讓他知道世界上除了迪士尼，還有另一極端。太早發現，人太早熟，會變得cynical；太遲知道，性格已經形成，恐怕受不了。


日本是一個很奇特的國家，從村上春樹、東野圭吾到《告白》的湊佳苗，最受歡迎的小説都很陰暗，跟太平洋彼岸的天下第一大國很不一樣。


看電影的時候，聽到這首歌，差點叫了出來：
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9_uQzEsSA1A&feature=related
又是Radiohead。

論亂倫

已經過了半年，《西方哲學史》只讀了一半。讀至第二部分“Catholic Philosophy”，趣味驟減，讀來讀去讀不完，但
曾承諾自己一定要把書看完，絕不半途而廢。很有點自虐。


終於讀到有趣的。羅素論Saint Thomas：
"Against brother-sister incest there is a very curious argument: that if the love of husband and wife were combined with that of brother and sister, mutual attraction would be so strong as to cause unduly frequent intercourse."

Logic

甲：羅素論Gregory The Great，"...the most effective men of action are often intellectually second-rate"。

乙：So what？

甲：會不會是我太intellectual，以致缺乏行動，所以一無所成？

乙：(p -> q) & ~q 能推出 ~p，但 (p -> q) & ~p 並不能推出 ~q，你缺乏行動不代表你intellectually first-rate，你最大可能只是缺乏行動並且intellectually third-rate。

甲：...

兩首歌

最近發現兩首好歌，開心了兩星期：

“Once”《一奏傾情》上映時沒去看，最近才看影碟，原來是一齣音樂電影，所有歌都好聽，其中印象最深非“Lies”莫屬

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RwQP3tL6ba4

據維基所載，Once的製作費只十三萬歐元，票房則收兩千萬美元。會不會是史上投資回報率最高的電影？

看 “House” Season VI 第一集，House在精神病院被隔離時的背景音樂是Radiohead的“No Surprises”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qqsyXdj_p_I
如Coldplay的音樂，最適宜邊聼邊喝威士忌。

賣豬肉會發達？

表哥的工廠的一位技術員，打算辭職回鄉賣豬肉。他在工廠的月入約二千元人民幣，他哥哥的豬肉檔每天能賺數百元，就算加薪五成也無法阻止他回去“開分店”。


受“開分店”事件的影響，我忍不住要看看雨潤食品（1068）今天公佈的中期業績。年多前第一次讀它的年報時，沒有發現賣豬肉會發達，卻看見另一條發達之路 - 負商譽、配舊股。今天驚見第三條路（但唔係Tony Blair嗰條） - 政府補貼，半年四億六千萬港幣。那個地方政府如此之濶？究竟核數師是如何Audit政府補貼的？


By the way, 賣豬肉是不會發達的。

股神年輕時（一）

最近才讀畢股神“Partnership時期”（1958-1969）的給股東的信。若只讀過“Berkshire時期”的信，很難想象他曾經投資於兩類股票 - “Workouts” 及 “Generals - Relatively Undervalued”，這裡引述他給的定義：


1）“Workouts” - These are the securities with a timetable. They arise from corporate activity - sell-outs, mergers, reorganizations, spin-offs, etc. In this category we are not talking about rumors or inside information pertaining to such developments, but to publicly announced activities of this sort.


2）“Generals - Relatively Undervalued” - This category consists of securities selling at prices relatively cheap compared to securities of the same general quality. We demand substantial discrepancies from current valuation standards, but (usually because of large size) do not feel value to a private owner to be a meaningful concept.


“Workouts”這類別，在資訊發達的現在，或許已經消失；“Generals - Relatively Undervalued”的理念，再也沒見於後來的信。是因爲效果不好而放棄嗎？應該不會，按他的分類，當年這種投資回報很高。


“Relatively Undervalued”這個概念確實不太“王道”，跟他宣揚的投資理念不同，愚以爲因此畢菲特並不鼓勵別人發佈Partnership時期的給股東的信。

Season Preview

Liverpoolfc.tv asked the leading reporters in England the following questions. I pretend to be one of them.

1) Who'll win league? Manchester United.

2) Where will Liverpool finish? Fourth.

3) Surprise package team? Newcastle United.

4) Player of the Year? Steven Gerrard, hopefully.

5) Relegated? Blackpool, West Brom, Wolverhampton.

6) LFC player to watch? Aquilanli. An injury-free Aquilanli would be mouth-watering.

7) One hope as a reporter this season? Liverpool Football Club to be sold to a sugar daddy from Middle East or Russia. Only owners from these two regions are idiotic enough to buy and hold football clubs in Premier League.

歷久不衰

羅素於《西方哲學史》論亞里士多德的《Politics》：
"... In an ironically Machiavellian tone, Aristotle explains what a tyrant must do to retain power. He must prevent the rise of any person of exceptional merit, by execution or assassination if necessary. He must prohibit common meals, clubs, and any education likely to produce hostile sentiment. There must be no literary assemblies or discussions. He must prevent people from knowing each other well, and compel them to live in public at his gates. He should employ spies, like the female detectives at Syracuse. He must sow quarrels, and impoverish his subjects. He should keep them occupied in great works, as the king of Egypt did in getting the pyramids built. He should give power to women and slaves, to make them informers. He should make war, in order that his subjects may have something to do and be always in want of a leader.
It is melancholy reflection that this passage is, of the whole book, the one most appropriate to the present day..."


六十多年又過去了，仍然非常 "appropriate to the present day"。

加人工

媒體的報導都只說富士康底薪從九百元升至二千元，沒有說獎金、補貼、加班費等等的安排。簡單地把差價乘十二個月再乘深圳廠區的四十萬人，以爲這是未來純利減少的幅度，這樣的報導應該登於娛樂版。

沒有資料，隨便分析一下：

1）工人的平均月工資一直遠超九百元，九百元只是最低保證。提升最低保證不代表實際支出會增加。眼明手快的員工以往可以拿二千元工資，現在可能拿二千四；手腳慢的以往拿一千六，現在不會被錄用。工人平均質素會上升，效率提高，工資總支出提高，但不會高很多。

2）固定部分薪金增加，浮動部分減少，多勞多得的誘因減弱，監管費用會上升。上升多少要看薪金浮動部分的安排。

3）公司一直有計劃地把生産基地往内陸轉移，這次事件會加速轉移，雖然内陸地區的工資也會增加，但加幅會低於深圳。

4）以富士康目前的規模及總體競爭力，加工資後訂單因而流失給競爭對手的機會很低，能夠轉嫁大部分額外成本給客戶的機會相當高。

5）郭總說考慮把部分生産綫搬回台灣，或其他東南亞地區。這些話只是說來嚇一嚇中國的官員：“再逼我，我可要撤資噢！”不會是真的。電子行業在中國有極大優勢，東南亞國家很難追上，原因多得很，要另文討論。總之，訂單流失到中國以外的機會近乎零。

相信底薪急升只會對短期盈利有些微影響。好好利用這次機會向客戶加價吧。